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STEPS TO VICTORY 

By 

DAVID F. HOUSTON 

Secretary of Agriculture 




Address Delivered Before the Economic Club, 
New York City, December 6, 1917 



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STEPS TO VICTORY. 1 

THIS IS a day of big things, of staggering questions, of un- 
precedented undertakings, and of incredible happenings. 
It is almost true that the incredible is the only believable 
and the impossible the only attainable. One can not be 
shocked or surprised or diffident any more. Therefore I enter- 
tained with complacency the suggestion that I meet you here 
and discuss rhe theme of the evening. 

It is unnecessary for me to confess that I am not wise 
enough to dispose of this subject to your satisfaction or to my 
own. I am not equal to it; but I have the satisfaction of know- 
ing that all of you are not, and even all of us at this head table 
are not. Perhaps a unified allied council may discover, indi- 
cate, and lake all the necessary steps, but I am reasonably 
certain that nothing less will suffice. 

There is one thing I like about the subject. It evidences 
the right spirit, the requisite determination, and a com- 
mendable and justifiable optimism. It assumes that we must 
and shall win, and win without undue delay. It implies that, 
having put our hand to the plow, we will not turn back, or 
even look back, and that we refuse to entertain the suggestion 
of possible failure. 

First and Last Steps to Early Victory. 

A clear, fixed, unalterable purpose to attain the ends we had 
in mind in accepting Germany's challenge, based on a thorough 
appreciation of the meaning of this struggle and a willingness 
to make all necessary sacrifices,' I regard as the first and last 
most essential steps to an early victory. This war is a test 
of the spirit of nations, even more than of their material 
resources and strength. The issue of it depends on the relative 
intelligence, moral qualities and attitude of the people engaged. 
Never before has there been a Avar which so effectively de- 

1 This subject was suggested by the officers of the Economic Club of 
New York City and it will be noted that the address was delivered before 
the club on December 6, 1917. 

m*v it im 



4 STEPS TO VICTORY. 

mantled the highest exhibition of intellectual capacity and also 
the unfaltering display of will power and moral courage. 
No more important duty confronts the leaders of thought every- 
where than that of informing the national mind and of sus- 
taining and confirming its spirit and purpose. Public opinion 
must be anchored and the motive for terrible sacrifices be 
firmly fixed. No matter what the difficulties, no matter what 
the seriousness of the strain, there can be no faltering. Civ- 
ilization can not afford to entertain the thought of defeat. 
The challenge of Germany went to the roots of freedom and 
of national existence. There is no halfway house. ' Proposals 
to parley with an unbeaten enemy, who proclaims himself 
victor, indicate nothing less than a willingness to admit de- 
feat. They spell relaxation of effort and demoralization. They 
mean assent to Prussia's century-old policy of extending her 
medieval patrimony by force and of gradually imposing her 
will on the world. They mean nothing more than a truce, "a 
truce with usury," a mere interruption of the strain and its 
assumption at a later day with interest compounded. All 
history points to this conclusion. 

The Pacifist a Constant Menace. 

No greater dangers confront democracy than those which 
may arise from drifting, from mental or moral fatigue, from , 
confused advice, from entertaining dangerous fallacies, and 
indulging in friendly optimistic sentiments toward an implac- 
able enemy. These are the dangers which extreme partizan- 
ship and pacifism breed. The pacifist is a constant menace; 
the mere partisan a criminal; and especially obnoxious is 
the vain omniscient partisan to whom the future is an open 
book, who alternately rags the public and assaults its enemies, 
censures everybody and everything except himself, indulges 
in irresponsible criticisms and misrepresentations, causing 
unwarranted popular confusion and unrest, generally giving 
aid and comfort to the enemy. These things must be abated 
through force of an educated public opinion if possible, but, 
in any event, must be abated. 



steps to victory. 5 

People Willing to Make Sacrifices. 

The indications to date are numerous that the people of this 
Nation as a whole have an effective appreciation of the mean- 
ing of the struggle and a willingness to make large sacrifices. 
It is only necessary to go among them to realize the strength 
of their sentiments and determination. EveryAvhere I have 
been impressed with the sound sense and fine spirit of the 
great majority of our citizens. Id respect to patriotic atti- 
tude, I have confirmed my suspicion that there were no geo- 
graphical boundaries to it, no North, no South, no East, no 
West, and that no section has a monopoly of intelligence or 
patriotism. 

We may also judge conclusively the state of mind of the 
people by the action of Congress. This body represents public 
opinion. It does not adopt and pursue a course of action if 
the people are hostile. In six months, that body has given 
to popular sentiment an expression without parallel in par- 
liamentary annals. The first great step toward winning this 
war was taken when the President of the United States, on 
April 2, in advising Congress to declare the existence of a state 
of war with Germany, pointed out what war would involve and 
demand. The striking thing about that historic address was 
not so much the advice it contained, momentous as that was, 
but rather the clear perception it revealed of the magnitude 
of the task before the Nation. 

Response op Congress. 

The response of Congress was prompt and adequate. It 
authorized and directed the President to employ the entire 
Navy and military forces of the Union and pledged to the 
Government all the resources of the Nation to bring the con- 
flict to a successful termination. The task of making good this 
pledge was entered upon and discharged in such manner as 
to startle many at home and to amaze even foreigners who had 
become habituated to prodigious operations. I well remember 
some characteristic remarks of Lord Northcliffe during his 
visit to Washington. Suddenly stopping and turning to me, 
he said: "Am I dreaming?" I asserted that he did not look 



6 STEPS TO VICTORY. 

like a dreamer. He continued: "I am told that Congress de- 
clared war on the 6th of April, authorized the Secretary of the 
Treasury to borrow approximately eleven and a half billion 
dollars, enacted a new tax law designed to raise two and a 
half billions in addition to ordinary revenues, appropriated 
or authorized nine billions for the Army and Navy, over a 
billion for ships, with a maximum authorization of nearly 
two billions six hundred and forty millions for airplanes, 
credits to the allies of seven billions, a total of actual appro- 
priations and authorizations of twenty-one billions; gave power 
to commandeer plants, ships, and materials; provided for con- 
scription, which England had not fully resorted to and Canada 
had not then adopted; that there bad been registered or en- 
listed nearly ten and a half million men; that Pershing w;>s 
in France and naval vessels were in Europe; that the food- 
production and food-control measures had been passed.; and 
that authority had been given for the control of exports and 
iir ports and of priorities." 

He repeated: "Am I dreaming or is it true?" I replied 
that unless I was dreaming it was true. He said : "I can't 
believe it." I told him I could believe it but that I could not 
comprehend it. It is difficult now to do so. The figures even 
for particular items are beyond comprehension. Think of 
them. For ships an authorization of a billion nine hundred 
millions, nearly double our former Federal budget; for avia- 
tion, six hundred and forty millions; for torpedo-boat de- 
stroyers, three hundred and fifty millions; for army subsist- 
ence and regular quartermaster supplies, eight hundred and 
sixty millions, for clothing and camp and garrison equipment, 
five hundred and eighty-one millions; for transportation, five 
hundred and ninety-seven millions ; for medicine, one hundred 
millions; for mobile artillery, one hundred and fifty-eight 
millions; for ordnance stores and supplies, seven hundred and 
seventeen millions; for heavy guns, eight hundred and fifty 
millions; and for ammunition for the same, one billion eight 
hundred and seven millions. 

The Federal Reserve Law and the War. 

Clearly Congress for the time being had taken the necessary 
steps to make good its pledge of placing the resources of the 



STEPS TO VICTORY. i 

country at the disposal of the Government. At the same time 
it created or authorized the creation of essential administra- 
tive agencies. In respect to administrative agencies impor- 
tant developments had already taken place. Most striking and 
significant of all was the enactment of the Federal reserve 
law and the creation of the Reserve Board and banks. This 
action obviously was taken without suspicion that the world 
was on the verge of war and that we would soon be involved. 
It was taken to insure better banking conditions in time of 
peace, and especially to enable us to weather financial storms. 
Before the reserve act was passed the Nation, as you well know, 
had no adequate banking system. Its financial arrangements 
had never been able to withstand strain either in peace or war. 
In each of our considerable struggles we had promptly sus 
pended specie payments, with all its attendant disabilities 
and burdens. But now, after four years of world financial 
strain, such as no financier dreamed it possible for the world 
to bear — I might say for six years, because there was a world- 
wide financial chill for at least two years before 1914, due to 
apprehension of war and to the undoubted financial prepara- 
tions made by the central powers — after this long strain and 
. the shock of the last six months, our finances are sound and 
we are proceeding in orderly fashion. For this reason, and 
because of our obligation to extend liberal credits, it is not 
extravagant to say that no greater contribution to the winning 
of this war has been or will be made than through the passage 
of the Federal reserve act in 1913 and the successful establish- 
ment of the system well in advance of trouble. 

Organization of Consulting Boards. 

■ Steps toward preparedness in respect to other highly essen- 
tial interests were taken much before war was declared. Their 
significance was not grasped by the public at the time. For 
the most part they have been overlooked. Pursuant to an act 
of Congress of March 3, 1915, two years before the war, the 
President appointed the National Advisory Committee for 
Aeronautics, composed of the most eminent students of the 
subject. In connection with the work of this committee and in 
part through its labors has been developed our enormous avia- 



8 STEPS TO VICTORY. 

tion program and expansion. Likewise, during the summer of 
1915, the Secretary of the Navy organized the admirable Naval 
Consulting Board with Edison as chairman and 2 representa- 
tives elected by each of 11 great engineering and scientific 
societies. Furthermore, on September 7, 1916, after a long 
and unfortunate delay caused by unintelligent opposition, the 
shipping act was passed, creating a board with large powers 
and appropriating fifty millions of dollars for the construc- 
tion, purchase, charter, and operation of merchant vessels 
suitable for naval auxiliaries in time of war. This was the be- 
ginning of the present huge shipbuilding program whose 
speedy execution is of paramount importance. 

The Council of National Defense. 

But that is not all in the way of early preparedness. On 
August 29, 1916, the Council of National Defense, consisting 
of six heads of departments and of an advisory commission of 
seven, nominated by the council and appointed by the Presi- 
dent, was created. The council wa3 charged with the duty of 
mobilizing military and naval resources, studying the location, 
utilization, and coordination of railroads, waterways, and 
highways, increase of domestic production for civil and mili- 
tary purposes, the furnishing of requisite information to man- 
ufacturers, and the creation of relations which would render 
possible the immediate concentration of national resources. 

The creation of the Council of National Defense was not 
the result of sudden inspiration. It was directly suggested by 
the activities of two very important groups of individuals. In 
March, 1916, a committee from the five great medical and sur- 
gical associations, having an aggregate membership of from 
70,000 to 100,000, was formed. It met in Chicago on April 14, 
1916, and tendered to the President the services of the medical 
men of the Nation. In March, also, representatives of five 
engineering organizations, with a membership of 35,000, met 
in New York and formulated a plan to make an inventory of 
the country's producing and manufacturing resources. The 
thought and purposes of these two bodies were brought to the 
attention of the President and their consideration resulted 
in recommendations for the creation of the Council of National 
Defense. 



steps to victory. 9 

New Agencies Created. 

Thus, a number of months before war was declared agencies 
had been created covering, at least in outline, many of the es- 
sential new activities. Seven of these of peculiar importance 
had begun to find themselves and to chart their course. I 
refer to the Shipping Board, the aviation, the medical, the 
manufacturing, the transportation, the munitions, and the la- 
bor committees. When war came these bodies greatly speeded 
up their work. Others were created — among them, the Food 
Administration, the Fuel Administration, the War Trade 
Council, the War Trade Board, and the War Industries Board. 

The War Industries Board. 

The last is of unique importance, and yet its work is little 
understood. Its members are the direct representatives of the 
Government and of the public interest. The tasks of the board 
are stupendous. It acts as a clearing house for the war indus- 
tries' needs of the Government, determines the most effective 
ways of meeting them, the best means of increasing production 
(including the creation of new facilities), the priority of pub- 
lic needs and also of transportation. It considers price factors, 
the labor aspects of industrial operations, large purchases of 
commodities where market values are greatly affected, and 
makes appropriate recommendations to the Secretaries of War 
and Navy. Judge Lovett is in immediate charge of priorities, 
Mr. Baruch of raw materials, and Mr. Brookings of finished 
products. These three constitute a commission for the approval 
of purchases by the Allies in this country from credits made 
through the Secretary of the Treasury. I need only remind 
you of the items of the appropriations for supplies, ordnance, 
and other things to impress you with the magnitude of 
the board's task. Its machinery is not yet perfect, but it is 
working, and I am sure that no step will be omitted to make 
it as nearly adequate as possible. If a better scheme can be 
devised, it should be promptly adopted. It is obviously of the 
highest importance that the resources of the Nation, made 



10 STEPS TO VICTORY. 

available by Congress, should be administered with the utmost 
skill and effectiveness. 

Mobilization of Talent. 

No machinery is of great value unless it is properly manned. 
The right sort of men is the first requisite of any kind of suc- 
cessful enterprise. I believe this requisite has been satisfied 
and that the Nation is mobilizing for this emergency additional 
men of as high character and fine talent as it possesses. Where 
so many are involved special mention is invidious, and I cite 
the names of the following merely as samples : Willard, Gom- 
pers, Baruch, Rosenwald, Coffin, Martin, and Godfrey ; Hoover, 
Garfield, Vanderlip, Davison, Vauclain; McCormick, Thomas 
D. Jones, Lovett, Brookings, and Frayne; Dr. Anna Shaw, 
Mrs. Philip Moore, Mrs. Cowles, Mrs. Catt, Miss Wetmore, 
Mrs. Lamar, Mrs. Funk, Mrs. McCormick, and Miss Nestor; 
and Drs. Simpson, Crile, Janeway, Flexner, Vaughn, Mayo, 
and Welch — all fine types of American citizenship, only a few 
of the hundreds working in their respective spheres in the 
Nation and in the States, having no selfish end to serve, work- 
ing with an eye single to the public interest and to the winning 
of this war, giving freely their services in as fine spirit as the 
Nation ever witnessed, revealing the real strength of democ- 
racy. 

So much, and perhaps more than enough, as to the congres- 
sional pledge of resources and the creation of machinery. Let 
us turn to other matters which I am sure you have in mind. 
I know you are asking what is being accomplished. What are 
the results? Obviously, some of them it would be inadvisable 
to indicate. Others I can only hint at. For the most part they 
have been detailed to the public through one agency or another 
from time to time. I shall try to summarize. 

The Army Cantonments. 

The Nation has to-day in all branches of its military services 
under arms and in training over 1,800,000 men, some in France, 
some on the ocean, and others in camps or at their posts of 
duty at home. Approximately ten and a half millions of men 
have been enlisted in the Regular Army, incorporated in the 



STEPS TO VICTORY. 11 

National Guard, or registered under the draft act. Those 
registered but not yet called out are being classified on the 
basis of national need. Rapid headway has been made in train- 
ing subordinate officers, and the gigantic undertaking of pro- 
viding suitable quarters or camps for the men in training has 
practically been finished. The Nation now has 35 Army can- 
tonments— 16 for the National Army, 16 for the National 
Guard, 2 at points of embarkation, and 1 for the Quarter- 
masters' Training School — all complete in respect to buildings 
or tents, lighting, sanitary arrangements, and temporary roads. 
The National Army cantonments were completed within the 
time set by the General Staff. What this involved can not 
easily be set forth. It entailed the selection of sites, the plan- 
ning of buildings, the securing of responsible contractors, the 
mobilization of labor, the assembling of materials, and the con- 
struction of modern hospitals and roads. These camps alone 
cover 150,000 acres and called for the use of 75,000 carloads of 
materials, including 500,000,000 feet of lumber. Their cost 
was approximately $128,000,000. The work was begun June 15 
and the finishing touches were put on by December 1. In 
addition 16 canvas camps for the National Guard were com- 
pleted at a cost of approximately $48,000,000. Thus local 
habitations were quickly provided for the new army, superior 
in respects to ventilation and conveniences to the best practice 
of Europe. 

Five instrumentalities or factors highly necessary for victory, 
it may be asserted without hesitation, are destroyers — the 
enemies of the submarine — airplanes, ships, medical service, 
and food. What of these? 

To Fight the Submarine. 

Of the first, the torpedo-boat destroyers, all I may say is that 
the construction program of the Navy contemplates 787 ships 
of all types, at an estimated cost of $1,150,000,000, including 
additional destroyers costing $350,000,000. The latter are to be 
of uniform standard model, large and fast. Some are to be 
built within 9 months and all within 18 months. This vast 
and urgent undertaking required a great extension of building 



12 STEPS TO VICTORY. 

facilities, and as private capital was unable or unwilling to 
make the extensions the Government had to do so. When 
completed, these plants belong to the Nation. I may add that 
these destroyers will require thousands of men to man them, 
but that they are being trained, and when the vessels are com- 
pleted the crews will be ready. 

Control of the Air. 

The work for the control of the air grows apace. Of the 
great aviation training fields, 17 in number, 2 are old, 1 is 
rebuilding, 7 were practically completed by September l,.and 
7 others will be finished within two weeks. In addition there 
are in operation to-day at leading universities 10 ground 
schools giving preparatory instruction in flying. Finishing 
courses are being given to our students in most of the allied 
countries, and more than 30 experienced foreign air service 
veterans have been loaned to us for duty in Washington and 
elsewhere. The building program calls for 20,000 machines. 
It will be expedited by reason of a great and interesting 
achievement, that of a standardized engine, something which 
no European nation has developed even after three and a half 
years of war. This accomplishment is in line with the best 
American traditions and was made with unique speed. What 
standardization of the engine and of its parts means in respect 
to speed and quantitative production, in repairs and economy 
of materials, need not be dwelt upon. It has been estimated 
that the service when in full strength will require a full force 
of 110,000 officers and enlisted men, an army greater than our 
regular military force of a few months ago. 

Providing More Ships. 

All agree that the enemy submarine must be destroyed. In 
the meantime shipping sunk by them must be replaced. Eng- 
land must not be starved. Supplies to all the allies must go 
forward without interruption. Our own troops must be trans- 
ported and provided with everything essential for effectiveness 
and comfort, and domestic transportation of men and com- 



STEPS TO VICTORY. 13 

modities be maintained and greatly increased. Furthermore, 
commodities must be brought here from many distant places. 
Therefore we must have ships, more ships, at once. Nothing 
more urgent. How is this matter proceeding? In the first 
place, the Shipping Board, on August 3, commandeered 426 
vessels either in course of construction for domestic or foreign 
account or contracted for, with a tonnage of over 3,000,000. 
Thirty-three of these ships, with a tonnage of 257,000, have 
been completed and released. Ex-German and Austrian ships 
with a capacity of 750,000 tons have been taken over for Gov- 
ernment use. The Fleet Corporation has contracted for 948 
vessels with a total tonnage of 5,056,000, of which 375, with 
a tonnage of one and a third million, are wooden; 58, with a 
tonnage of 270,000, are composite; and 515, with a capacity 
of 3,500,000, are steel. All these ships have an aggregate ton- 
nage of 8,835,000, or nearly a million and a half tons greater 
than that of the regular merchant marine of the Nation in 
1916. Contracts for 610,000 tons additional are pending. The 
total building program calls for over 10,000,000 tons, and it 
is proposed that a considerable part of it shall be executed 
by the end of 1918. The nature of this task may be more 
easily appreciated when it is remembered that the construction 
in the United States for 1916 did not exceed 400,000 tons and 
that the average for the five years preceding was 350,000. At 
present there are 100 yards building ships, exclusive of 20 
building the commandeered vessels, and of these 100, 70 are 
new. The policy of standardization has been pursued and five 
classes of ships have been adopted. 

Medical Organization. 

I have already referred to the preliminary steps toward 
medical organization. Further action was promptly taken. 
An inventory was made of the medical resources of the Nation, 
of doctors, nurses, and others who could be called by the 
Surgeon General, and of hospitals and supplies. Courses in 
modern military medicine and surgery for third and fourth 
year students were formulated and adopted by 75 of the 95 
medical schools in January, 1917. It was known that 80 per 
cent of the instruments used in this country were made in 



14 STEPS TO VICTORY. 

Germany. It was necessary to develop their production here, 
and to facilitate this the first essential step was to introduce 
standardization, to resort to staple articles. More liberal stand- 
ards were authorized and the variety of types was greatly re- 
duced. Instead of scores of kinds of scissors a dozen were 
agreed upon. Instead of many sorts of needles, forceps, and 
retractors, two, three, or four types were adopted. Manufac- 
turers were given priority of materials and consequently full 
military orders will be delivered in less than eight months. It 
is illuminating that one concern, taking its chances, had manu- 
factured according to specifications, by the time it was awarded 
a contract, enough material to require 10 carloads of lumber 
for packing. This was the result of the efforts of 75 of the 
most eminent medical specialists of the Nation, working with 
the military staff in contact with 250 leading manufacturers. 

The peace strength of the medical forces of the Army was 531 
and of the Navy 480. Now the Surgeon General of the Army 
has in his regular force and in the new enrollment of physicians 
actually accepting commissions 16,432, a number sufficient for 
an army of two and one-third millions, and a dental force of 
3,441, adequate for an army of 3,400,000. The Navy now has 
1,795 medical officers, a number in excess of present needs. The 
Red Cross has enrolled 15,000 trained nurses, organized 48 base 
hospitals with 9,600 doctors, nurses, and enlisted men, 16 
hospital units with smaller staffs to supplement the work of 
the base hospitals, is furnishing supplies to 35 hospitals of all 
sorts in France, and since May has raised over $100,000,000. 

Organization of Agriculture. 

What shall I say about the organization of agriculture for 
the production of food, clothing, and other materials? It is 
unnecessary to dwell upon the need of an adequate supply of 
food for the civilians and soldiers of this Nation and also for 
those of the nations with whom we are associated. When we 
entered the war, this country was and had been facing an un- 
satisfactory situation in respect to its supply of foods and 
feedstuffs. The production in 1916 of the leading cereals was 
comparatively low, aggregating 4.8 billions of bushels as 
against 6 for 1915, 5 for 1!»14, and 4.9 for the five-year average. 
The wheat crop had been strikingly small and it was certain 



STEPS TO VICTORY, 



15 



that on account of adverse weather conditions the output for 
1917 would be greatly curtailed. The situation was no better 
in respect to other conspicuously important commodities, such 
as potatoes and meats. The need of action was urgent and 
the appeal for direction insistent. The Nation looked for 
guidance primarily to the Federal department and to the State 
agencies which it had so liberally supported for many years. 
It was a matter of great good fortune that the Nation had had 
the foresight, generations before, in another time of national 
stress, in 1862, to lay soundly the foundations of agriculture. 
In respect to agencies working for the improvement of rural 
life, the Nation was prepared. In point of efficiency, personnel, 
and support it had establishments excelling those of any other 
three nations combined, and a great body of alert farmers who 
were capable of producing two or three times as much per unit 
of labor and capital as the farmers of Europe. 

Steps were quickly taken to speed up production. In a two- 
day session at St. Louis the trained agricultural officers of the 
country conceived and devised a program of legislation and 
organization, the essential features of which have not been 
successfully questioned, and the substantial part of which has 
been enacted into law and set in operation. Initiative was 
not wanting in any section of the Union. Effective organiza- 
tions quickly sprang up in all the States and the services of 
experts everywhere immediately were made available. The 
response of the farmers was prompt and energetic. Weather 
conditions for the spring season were favorable and the results 
are that crop yields have been large and that the Nation is 
able not only to feed itself but in considerable measure to 
supply the needs of those with whom we are cooperating. 

That the farmers of the Nation have generously responded 
to the appeals for increased production, and that much has 
been done to insure a large supply of foods and feedstntfs. 
justifies no let-down in their activities or in those of all agri- 
cultural agencies. On the contrary, even greater efforts must 
be put forth in the coming months, if we are to meet fully 
the civilian and military demands. There must be no break- 
down on the farms, no failure of foods, feedstuffs, or clothing. 
Especially must we have a more abundant supply of meats and 
fats to replenish the stores of the long-suffering allies. 



16 steps to victory. 

Difficulties Confronting Agriculture. 

Many difficulties confront the agricultural forces. Fer- 
tilizers are scarce. Farm machinery has advanced in price 
and transportation is burdened. To secure an adequate sup- 
ply of labor everywhere will demand our best energies. Espe- 
cially serious to the farmer is the task of retaining on his 
farms his regular year-round help. An army could not be 
raised without taking men from every field of activity and 
it would have been unfair to any class to have proposed its 
complete exemption. The problem is a constructive one. Mere 
complaint is useless. Our aim is to secure even greater pro- 
duction from the labor on the farms; and it must be attained. 
Farmers in the same community must cooperate with one 
another more actively. Forms of labor not heretofore regu- 
larly or fully utilized must be employed and plans for the 
shifting of labor from places where the load has passed to 
communities where there is urgent need must be perfected. 
Whether more drastic action will be needed remains to be 
seen. General conscription would present many difficulties. 
Several things are certain. Relatively nonessential industries 
must be prepared to release labor and capital for essential 
undertakings ; and, either through State or Federal action, any 
able-bodied individuals who can but will not do useful work 
must be pressed into the service. 

Unity in Action. 

It would appear, then, that the courses we must follow, the 
directions we must take to win victory, have been indicated 
and charted. While corrections and extensions will be made, 
I am confident that the important essential steps have been 
taken and that success will come rather through steadying 
and expediting these than through any novel enterprises. Un- 
questionably the coordination of all domestic agencies, govern- 
mental and private, must be perfected so that the Nation may 
direct its great energies and resources with full effect against 
the enemy. I am equally confident that the most "practicable 
cooperation in counsel and action with the Governments now 
at war with Germany" must be secured. What specific form 



STEPS TO VICTORY. 17 

that shall take I am not wise enough to suggest; but that 
there must be unity of policy and effort, the wisest utilization 
of our combined resources, and the most skillful, strategical 
handling of military and naval forces on the basis of inter- 
national and not of particularistic interests under an unham- 
pered, common control seems to admit of no manner of doubt. 
Mistakes may be made even then, but not so many or as fateful 
ones as may be made if there are as many programs as there 
are nations involved. Campaigns can not otherwise be suc- 
cessfully conducted and battles won against great powers 
having the advantage of interior lines and of a single, absolute 
directing mind. The solution of this problem is the present 
pressing need for victory now or later. 

Financial Burden Borne Now. 

Furthermore, we must keep in the forefront of our thinking 
the imperative necessity for maintaining the integrity and 
soundness of our finances. To this end, it seems to me the 
people of the Nation, after adjustments have been made to 
changed industrial conditions and to the new revenue legis- 
lation, must be prepared increasingly to meet the burdens of 
this war through just and equitable taxation. If they can 
be convinced of the plain truth, that the easiest way tem- 
porarily- and ultimately to bear the financial burdens of war 
is to meet them as they rise, as largely as possible through 
taxation, the task will be relatively simple. This is a fact, 
but not an obvious one. Centuries of unsound traditions and 
many delusions stand in the way. There is the singular mis- 
apprehension that by borrowing, the burden of waging a war 
to that extent can be shifted to future generations. If this 
were true, there would be no definable limit to the extent and 
variety of war the present generation could wage. The truth 
is that in a Nation like ours, not borrowing abroad, whether 
control of wealth is secured through taxes on all or in part 
through loans from the few, the people pay for the war as it 
proceeds, and that if the books were closed at the end of the 
war, the Nation would have paid for it. The iron, the steel, 
the coal, the clothing, the shoes, the lumber, the ammunition, 
the guns, and the ships secured by the Government are used 
and destroyed at the time, and, for the most part, can not 



18 



STEPS TO VICTORY. 



later be enjoyed. By borrowing, a burden, it is true, is placed 
on the people after the war, but it is a burden of restitution. 
A credit relation is set up and an obligation on the part of 
all is incurred to pay back with interest the wealth the Nation 
has used. The main fact is that the wealth is taken and con- 
sumed by the Nation at the time. The burden is borne while 
the war is on. As I see it, there are only two really plausible 
arguments that may be made for resorting mainly to loans — 
one a psychological argument, namely, that the people do not 
effectively appreciate the necessity for the war, and would be 
impatient or resentful ; the other, a physical one, that it is 
difficult in time to devise an equitable measure, to administer 
it, and to secure revenue promptly. The former argument 
should appeal more strongly in an autocracy than in a democ- 
racy, and especially in one which so quickly perceived the 
justice and need of a conscription of men. The second applies 
with diminishing force as the war is prolonged and time is 
afforded for action. 

Producing and Saving. 

If it be true that the burden of war is actually borne at the 
time, then it follows that the capacity of a nation to wage 
war is measured by its ability to maintain production, and 
especially to save — to abstain from luxuries, and to stop waste. 
Hence the importance of our many appeals in this direction. 

And let us not be deluded by inflated reports of the rapid 
growth of our wealth into thinking that we can meet the 
burdens of this war without further increased production and 
economy. There is danger of this when figures come from 
responsible sources without proper interpretation and explana- 
tion. In such times as these, statements of wealth in terms 
ofdollars may mean relatively little. The Nation, for instance, 
has been informed that the value of the 1917 output of farm 
products is 21 billions of dollars, whatever that is — a sum 
equal to the total appropriations and authorizations made by 
Congress in its last session for war purposes. Newspapers 
have written editorials about it. We are told that no land 
ever before produced so great farm values, that it is providen- 
tial that these blessings are heaped upon a worthy people, and 



STEPS TO VICTORY. 19 

that America has the will to place this unexampled treasure 
at the service of the world. These statements are true, and 
very misleading. The simple fact is that the actual volume 
of agricultural things produced, bushels of cereals, bales of 
cotton, number of hogs and sheep, and some other things, is 
smaller than in 1915, and that consumers simply generally get 
much less for a dollar. The same statement may be made in 
a measure as to the reported statistics of industrial produc- 
tion. It is highly important that these things be seen in the 
right light, and that they are not permitted to impair the 
motive for saving. 

Now, taxes have this advantage over loans: They more 
directly enforce economy. It is true that, whether we part 
with our wealth through taxes or the loan of our savings, we 
shall have less to spend on ourselves, but it is not always true 
that we make our loans from our realized savings. Just there 
is the difficulty. To pay our subscription we not infrequently 
resort to borrowing beyond our willingness to save, and thereby 
set in operation processes which may result in undue expan- 
sion of credit. Taxation, especially on consumption, more 
particularly on luxuries, tends more directly to enforce saving, 
to keep the general level of prices steady, to check investment 
in nonessential directions, and to release capital and labor for 
urgent needs. But, after all, large sums must be secured 
through loans. Borrowing in itself will not necessarily bring 
about an undue expansion of credit and an advance in prices. 
It may promote saving. It will do so if payments are made 
from funds «v. hand or with savings from current income. It 
is, therefore, of the first importance to the successful prosecu- 
tion of the war that the disposition of the people to economize 
be stimulated. The conception of the war savings certificate 
plan was, for this purpose, a peculiarly happy one, and its 
promotion must receive the cordial support and indorsement 
of financial leaders everywhere. 

Patriotism and Profits. 

That we have the physical resources to win this war, if they 
are properly conserved, I entertain no doubt; that we have 
these in larger measure than any other nation in the world 



20 STEPS TO VICTORY. 

is a matter of common knowledge. We have not yet fully 
realized the enormous power of the country. If in the sixties, 
when we were a simple, crude, undeveloped Nation, doing 
things, relatively speaking, on an "oxcart" basis, with the ques- 
tion yet undetermined whether we were to be one nation or 
two, we could wage the mightiest war up to that time and issue 
from it with unrivaled power, what can we not do to-day, 
with a united people and with immeasurably greater resources, 
if our spirit is right and our purpose is steadfast? Unless the 
descendants of the men who followed Grant and Lee are de- 
generate, there can be no question of the ultimate outcome. It 
is time for each individual to search his heart and to purge 
his mind and purpose of selfish motives and for each class in 
society to think in terms of the Nation rather than in terms of 
its own interest. It is no time for any class to hug to its 
bosom the delusion that it possesses a monopoly of patriotism. 
Human nature is pretty evenly distributed and no little selfish- 
ness manifests itself in every direction. Unfortunately there 
are self-seekers in every group, men who assume the attitude 
that if they are to make additional efforts to increase produc- 
tion or to serve the country, the Nation must pay them the 
price. Their patriotism, it is implied, needs to be stimulated. 
This is impossible because there is no foundation to work upon. 
I have heard many manufacturers solemnly assert that if the 
Government wished them to speed up their operations, to ex- 
tend their plants, or to take additional trouble in any direction, 
it must guarantee to them an abnormally large profit in addi- 
tion to the requisite allowance for amortization. One of them 
recently suggested to me that he was getting weary of the 
burdens he had assumed, and that if the Government wished 
him to continue or to undertake new tasks, it would have to 
induce him to do so by permitting him greatly to increase his 
profits. What would he or others say of a soldier, of the man 
drafted into the Army, who protested that for so much he 
would go to the seaboard, but if the Government wished him 
to go abroad, it must stimulate him with a 25 per cent increase 
in his pay, or, if he went to the front trenches, with 50 per 
cent? 

In the words of the President, ''Patriotism has nothing to 
do with profits in a case 1 like this. Patriotism and profits 



STEPS TO VICTORY. 21 

ought never in the present circumstances be mentioned to- 
gether. It is perfectly proper to discuss profits as a matter of 
business, * * * but it would be absurd to discuss them 
as a motive for helping to serve and save our country. * * * 
In these days of our supreme trial, when we are sending hun- 
dreds of thousands of our young men across the seas to serve 
a great cause, no true man who stays behind to work for them 
and sustain them by his labor will ask himself what he is per- 
sonally going to make out of that labor. No true patriot will 
permit himself to take toll of their heroism in money or seek 
to grow rich by the shedding of their blood." 

The Individual's Duty. 

I can conceive that each individual, no matter what class in 
society he belongs to or what service he renders, whether he 
be a manufacturer, a farmer, a laborer, a lawyer, a scientist, 
or a soldier, will take pains to see that he attains for himself 
and his operations the highest degree of efficiency and give the 
maximum service or products to the Nation. at the lowest cost 
consistent with efficient operation and effective standards of 
living ; but it is inconceivable to me that any citizen who dares 
to call himself a patriot should aim to do less or to seek mere 
selfish advantage. It is obviously the duty of each civilian to 
reveal by his conduct the same standards of patriotism, 
devotion, and sacrifice, if necessary, either of life or property, 
that we expect from the men whom we send to the front di- 
rectly to bear the brunt of battle. I am confident that it is in 
this spirit that most of the people of the Nation are viewing 
their obligations and that the great body of public sentiment 
will permit no other attitude to manifest itself in those who 
are less right-minded. There can be no slacking, no turning 
back. The rights of the Nation must be vindicated and its in- 
stitutions preserved. Those who would keep the people of the 
world from going about their business in orderly and decent 
fashion must be taught a lesson once for all. Guaranties that 
there shall be no recurrence of such a world calamity as the 
present must be enforced. A finish must be made once for all 
to all things feudal, humanity be safeguarded, democracy 
impregnably intrenched, and the lesson be forced home that the 



22 STEPS TO VICTORY. 



worthy and tolerable national aspiration is to have a clean na- 
tional household from cellar to attic, and a durable and right- 
eous peace must be secured, in accordance with the recent his- 
tory-making declaration of the President, in itself a great 
step 'toward victory— a peace on the basis of reparation, justice 
and security. 



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